I was traveling out of town when Fujifilm held their interactive Focus on Glass live event. While I managed to type out an article from my friend’s couch, I didn’t discuss it nearly as much as I would have liked. Now that a week has gone by, my thoughts have shifted a little. For those who might have missed it, click here to watch Fujifilm’s video and to vote on potential future lens ideas.

First of all, I think it is super cool that Fujifilm has invited their customers to help shape future products. This is a great community-building initiative, and also excellent market research. But, of course, one bad apple spoils a whole bunch, so we can’t have nice things. I read in a few different places some people bragging about voting many times for their favorite lenses, as many as 20 times each day. Apparently the website lets you vote over-and-over-and-over if you want, and some of those who bragged about this claimed that they use an IP address blocker so it won’t register as being from the same person. I have no idea what measures Fujifilm has put in place to prevent someone rigging the results so their favorite option wins, but it appears some have figured out how to get the tally that they want. Sadly, because of this, the vote totals have to be taken with a significant grain of salt. If Fujifilm does something like this again in the future, I hope they are able to safeguard it so that each person’s vote counts the same. I also hope that those attempting to cheat the system don’t sour Fujifilm’s attitude towards community input, but it very well might. It only takes a few to ruin it for everyone else. Shame.

An example of how this could be detrimental is the lens that’s currently in second-place (and not far from first), the 16-50mm f/1.4. On-paper it sounds like a wonderful lens, offering a bright aperture and shallow depth-of-field across a very useful focal-length range. However, look at the projected size and weight, and consider the probable price tag. It would be the 6th heaviest Fujinon X-series lens, and the heaviest wide-angle. This thing would be massive for a “kit” lens, and would likely cost around $2,000, maybe as much as $3,000. I’m sure some would buy it, but most won’t. It reminds me of the Fujinon 200mm f/2, which Fujifilm developed based on a multitude of customer requests; however, once released, it was very slow to sell due to its size, weight, and especially cost. A lot of those who requested it never purchased it. Now, if Fujifilm creates the 16-50mm f/1.4 lens based on the (supposed) demand from this survey, likely becoming available sometime in 2029 or 2030, but it has disappointing sales figures, Fujifilm is unlikely to ask for input from the community again, at least for awhile.

An alternative approach that Fujifilm could pursue is to break it up into two different lenses. For example, maybe a 16-35mm f/1.4 and 35-50mm f/1.4. If they did this, they could potentially add a little to each end, perhaps 15-35mm and 35-60mm or something like that. By splitting it into two lenses, each wouldn’t be so large, heavy or expensive; however, buying both would likely be more bulk and expense than if Fujifilm produced it as one large lens. So there are pros and cons to each idea.

The current leader of the pack is another zoom: 16-80mm f/2.8. Fujifilm thinks that they can make this around the same size and weight as the Fujinon 16-80mm f/4, maybe just a little larger and heavier. That’s truly amazing! This one seems like it could be a legitimate option. I can see it replacing the f/4 version; however, it’s likely to be a bit more expensive, perhaps in the $1,200-$1,500 range.

I don’t want to get down into the weeds too much here. Fujifilm likely has six to 10 different X-series lenses at various stages of development, none of which were included in their survey. Some might get scrapped, but most—if not all—will be released over the next two or maybe three years. We don’t know what these are, other than they’re not the ones in the survey. My guess is an update to the 18mm f/2 is one, but that’s merely a guess. We will know soon enough, though.

Of those lenses in the survey, most will not see the light of day. A few might. I think an update to the 35mm f/1.4 is one, and Fujifilm is using this survey to help guide the direction of it (this might actually be the main purpose of the survey). The 16-80mm f/2.8 is another, if Fujifilm can indeed keep the size and weight somewhere close to the f/4 version. I hope for the 18/30mm dual focal-length semi-pancake, but that’s just my personal wish. Same for the manual-focus lenses, but those didn’t get many votes, so they’re probably toast. My guess is that the cine prime lenses will come whenever the X-series version of the GFX Eterna 55 is announced, and their lack of current development is an indicator that the camera is quite a ways out, too. It’s possible that one or two of the other lens ideas—perhaps the 33mm f/1 and/or 14-140mm f/3.5-6.3—could also come at some point, but their lower vote count (especially the 33mm f/1) might push their priority lower, making their debut in 2030 or 2031 perhaps.

Essentially, the lenses I think we’ll see from this survey are 1) first the 35mm f/1.4 II and 16-80mm f/2.8 (in 2028 or 2029), 2) then maybe the 16-50mm f/1.4 and 18/30mm semi-pancake (in 2029 or 2030), and 3) finally the 14-140mm f/3.5-6.3 and maybe, maybe not the 33mm f/1 (in 2030 or 2031). If an APS-C Eterna cinema camera ever comes, I suspect that some cinema lenses will also be announced along with it. All of the other options are highly unlikely, unless a whole bunch of people start voting for them soon.

I want to applaud Fujifilm for asking the community for input. This is really great. I’m sorry that a handful of people have attempted to ruin it, but I guess that is to be expected, sadly. It will be interesting to watch the lenses released by Fujifilm over the next five years, to find out which ones were under development already, and to see which from this survey Fujifilm decided to create. How exciting!