Fujifilm has already produced and delivered more copies of the X100VI than any other previous X100-series model. There are more X100VI’s in the hands of photographers right now than X100V, or X100F, or X100T, etc.. That’s truly amazing, since the X100VI was released only about a year-and-a-half ago, while the other models had production runs closer to four years.
The reason why Fujifilm has made so many copies of this camera is because of the unprecedented historic demand for it. By far, there were more preorders for the X100VI than any other camera by any manufacturer ever. No camera in the history of cameras has had so much interest at announcement. And, if the demand doesn’t relent anytime soon, it could possibly lead to the X100VI becoming the most-sold camera of all time (not including cellphones), which would be a highly improbable achievement. I don’t think that will happen—not even close—because surely the demand isn’t that strong. At some point, it will certainly back off to a more “normal” level, right?
There are still people lamenting that they can’t get their hands on a Fujifilm X100VI. They’d like to buy one, but can’t find it in stock anywhere. As soon as a camera store lists it in-stock, which doesn’t happen often, within hours or even minutes, they’re sold out again. So it might be easy to believe that the demand hasn’t relented. But that’s mostly just in America, and it seems to be partially related to the tariffs. Worldwide, the X100VI has been becoming easier and easier to find. It’s still out of stock at a lot of places, but overall, it’s not terribly hard to get one if you want one. People are reporting walking into their local camera store and finding a few copies on the shelf. So internationally—and depending on where exactly—the situation is a bit better than here at home.
What makes me think that supply and demand are equalizing is that there are used copies available for a reasonable price, like at B&H. Scalping continues on sites like eBay, but it’s not nearly as bad as it was last year. Things are slowly returning to normal. And this is where Fujifilm needs to be very, very careful, a situation that I’ve been predicting for more than a year.
With the X100VI, Fujifilm doubled the production numbers of the X100V from the get-go, from 7,500 units per month to 15,000. At one point last year they said that they wanted to double production again, making it four times that of the X100V, but later stated that that simply wasn’t possible. My best guess is that it is somewhere around three times more than the X100V right now, which would put it at about 22,000 copies per month, or about 265,000 units per year (these numbers are just guesses). The historically “normal” demand for an X100-series camera is 90,000 per year.
At some point, demand for the X100VI will drop. Once the majority of those who want one get one, Fujifilm will sell a lot fewer of them. If the market gets oversaturated, the value will decrease, and Fujifilm will be forced to reduce the price. Those selling them used will have to drop their price, too. This is a situation that Fujifilm really wants to avoid, as it would reduce brand strength. It would be a Lean Production failure if Fujifilm produced more X100VI’s than there are customers wanting to buy them. Fujifilm must proceed with caution.
The mistake of overproduction would be very easy. Since it takes many months from securing parts and scheduling manufacturing to delivering an assembled camera to a store, the demand must be forecasted in advance, probably at least six months. If Fujifilm is making 22,000 units per month, and the total international demand right now is 130,000, in six months Fujifilm would have overproduced 2,000 copies. That’s probably not a big deal, as they’ll surely sell those cameras; however, if they’ve still got 132,000 cameras in the process somewhere, to be manufactured over the following six months, that’s a massive and possibly devastating problem. That’s something that could sink the whole camera division.
I’m just little ol’ me sitting in my office trying to stay cool from the brutal Arizona sun, but even I can see early signs that supply and demand are equalling out. That should be a huge caution flag for Fujifilm. They should strongly consider scaling back production. Perhaps drop it back to 15,000 units monthly ASAP, and work towards “only” 7,500 units monthly by 12 months from now. Obviously Fujifilm wants to capitalize on this lightning-in-a-jar situation as much as possible, and they’d love to sell a quarter-million-plus copies per year without hardly any promotion—what a dream circumstance! But they should also listen to that nagging feeling that this won’t last forever, because it won’t.
I wouldn’t doubt if the X100VI sold twice as many units as the X100V or any other prior X100-series camera by the time its production run has ended. It might even sell four times as many. At some point, though, all the people who want one will have one. Aside from that, trends change quickly. All it takes is some shift in market dynamics or some other camera to catch the attention of social media influencers for the X100VI to be yesterday’s news. Overproduction is a real problem that Fujifilm is well acquainted with and desperately wants to avoid, and no other X-series camera has had a higher risk of overproduction than the X100VI. Fujifilm should ask themselves if now is the time to scale back, because it would be very easy to overshoot this, something that they’d certainly regret doing.
Interesting insights!
Thanks!
While you sit in AZ, back in Japan Fujifilm has a whole marketing department filled with analysts who monitor sales trends around the world. They perform analytics and make projections based on real-time data. But maybe you know better…
Well, there’s at least one person I’m sure who is keeping track of trends and stats, and presenting an analysis to those who make manufacturing decisions.
I know your comment is meant to be facetious, but it’s actually an interesting topic with a fascinating case study. Just last year, Fujifilm admitted that they have not always done a good job at this, and they want to do better at forecasting so as to avoid overproducing, which is bad for both their bottom line and for their customers (a.k.a. “brand strength”). The case study, which I’ve talked about before, is the X-E3 vs X-E4. Fujifilm overestimated the demand of the X-E3 and made too many copies; Fujifilm underestimated the demand of the X-E4 and produced too few copies. Neither are ideal situations, but, if you are going to err on one side or the other, which is best? In the case of the X-E3, Fujifilm had to steeply discount it in order to sell all of the units manufactured, which had a negative effect on profit margins; it also meant that those who paid full price had to take a big loss on the secondhand market if they wanted to sell it. All of the X-E4 units manufactured were sold at list-price; however, Fujifilm left money on the table by not manufacturing more, which they could have easily sold. Because of this, used X-E4 cameras were commonly found for 50% to 100% more than MSRP on the used market. Even now, the X-E4 sells for much more used than they did brand-new, and about twice the price of the X-E3 (which still sells for less than MSRP). Which outcome is better? If you are trying to snag a bargain, you might say the X-E3 scenario is preferable, but otherwise the X-E4 situation is clearly better. Obviously, getting closer to the middle, where a camera is neither overproduced nor overproduced is the most ideal goal, but tricky to attain.
Since this is uncharted territory, I simply offered my two pennies of advice to use caution. If Fujifilm wants to take it or leave it, that’s up to them, and it won’t bother me if they do or don’t (and that’s assuming they even read it, which they might not).
In my experience companies who survive in declining markets like audio, cameras and other has been markets have little or no marketing people. They do have some sales people who visit distributors and dealers for PR
I’m not sure about the Japan office specifically, but the Fujifilm North America team is surprisingly small. My guess is that the Japan office is, too, but that’s only a guess. I think the total number of employees worldwide in Fujifilm’s digital camera division would be shocking to a lot of people.
This article only reads from the view of someone hoping to maintain the sell-on value of their cameras
I don’t care about that, personally. I have sold very few Fujifilm cameras over the last five years (despite the profits I probably could have made on, say, my X100V and X-E4…), and recently when I have, I used MPB, and got less money than I could have elsewhere just for the ease of it. I buy cameras for the pictures I can create and fun that I can have with them, and I worry zero about the resale value.
With that said, Fujifilm does care about the resale value, which is a part of what they call brand strength.
That’s a good analysis Ritchie. I wonder if they will they just start reducing the numbers of the X100V1 at some point and bring out a newer version of the camera. It must be a juggling act for the marketing department I guess.
I don’t go for the one focal length thing myself, but I would be happy with an X100F as an extra camera if it ever gets really cheap enough, which it might do eventually with over production affecting resale value of all X100’s in general.
Since the X100VI came out about midway through the fifth-generation cycle, I imagine that a sixth-generation version could come as early as next year. I don’t think it will, but even if it comes in 2027, that’s still a short cycle. Honestly, Fujifilm could sell the X100VI for another four years if they wanted to.
If the X100VI is grossly overproduced, it would likely effect the resale value of previous models (like the X100F). Right now we’re not there, but it could potentially happen within the next 12 months, if demand starts to drop while manufacturing is still at high levels.
This may also happen with the upcoming Fuji X-E5. I bet there are many pre-orders for that camera.
I wouldn’t doubt it. And the X-E5, which is the closest thing to an interchangeable-lens X100VI, might even take some of the demand away from that camera. That might even be the point of it.
Hello Ritchie,
I have read your thoughts on production volume of the X100VI. To a certain degree, I agree, however, there are a couple of things that should also be considered.
1) The number of people who want one is not a fixed number. It is actually a variable number, that can be influenced. The magic word is create the demand. There are many goods, people do not need, and had not thought, they would want them, and yet, they want them.
So the question is more, how do I create the demand, and make sure, it’ll stay high as long as possible by extending the product life cycle. And then, when the demand drops, the new product would be ready.
2) I am not sure, there has been a significant impact on the demand in the US by tariffs. The price has apparently not been increased since the whole thing started with the unilateral tariffs, that US customers will have to pay.
3) In support of creating demand, and you know that, this camera makes it joyful to take pictures. And that joy might be true for plenty of people, whose only contact point with photography was their cell phone. There is the real addressable market – billions of potential customers. When I compare these numbers, it becomes obvious that, that with a production capacity of 200,000 to 300,000, the potential market has only been scratched.
NB: There are around 2.3 million people in the world, that have a net worth of above $10 million.
So, in the end, I think Fujifilm people know, what they are doing, and so far they have done a great job.
And let us remember, that every sold X100VI brings cash into the company, that can be used to advance the company and their products, and also develop the market, and create demand.
So much for my thoughts.
For your points:
1) This is true, and demand can be influenced by people and circumstances outside the sphere of Fujifilm. If, say, Canon releases the retro-inspired camera that has been rumored, and a bunch of big social media people focus on that and ignore the X100VI, it’s possible that demand could fall off a cliff. On the other hand, if demand does start to fade, Fujifilm could begin marketing the camera, which they really haven’t done (or needed to do) since it was announced. So it can go any number of ways, and is certainly not linear.
2) The tariffs have effected it in that some units intended for the US have been diverted to other markets to avoid the tariffs, which has increased availability in some markets while reducing it in the US. I assume that at some point Fujifilm will raise the price of the X100VI (and other models) in America, like some other brands have already done.
3) While there is certainly a massive potential market, the actual market is still pretty small in comparison. Supposedly, according to AI, the X100VI is already Fujifilm’s most-sold X-series camera at about a half-a-million units (I don’t know if that’s true… it could go either way).
Fujifilm is walking a narrow mountain ridge, and it would be easy to fall off either side. One side is much worse than the other.
Interesting, and it makes me wonder: if Fujifilm had by now alreadyreleased an X-Pro3 successor ILC with X100VI-generation innards (sensor etc) what impact that would have had on the combined sales of X-Pro3-successor and X100VI — a net gain or loss?
That’s a good question. I don’t have an answer, but maybe that kind of explains the X-Pro4 delay?
This is great news for me. I got rid of my X100F 2 years ago and regret it daily. I will get my beloved camera back, probably in the next two years at Pennie’s on the dollar.
I hope you’re able to get one. If Fujifilm happens to grossly overproduce the X100VI, it could be at a cheaper price.
People still can’t get the camera so I’m thinking double down and ramp up production.
Well, a heck-of-a-lot of people have and can—everybody I know that wanted one was able to buy it awhile ago. I’ve seen a whole bunch of them at photowalks, too, maybe more than any other model. So that would be a very risky move, IMHO. But whose to say? Maybe that is the best move: roll the dice and hope for seven. It might pay off tremendously; it might end the camera division altogether (or anywhere in-between).
I’ve seen a lot of people say something to the effect of, “Fujifilm shouldn’t release any more cameras until all of the current offerings are easily found in stock at all times.” I don’t hope for that, personally. I think it is a healthy situation for there to be a model or three that you can’t readily get, but you might have to order and wait a couple of (or few) weeks for it to come in stock. If every model has more supply than demand, that’s not an ideal scenario whatsoever, but that’s seemingly what people are demanding (in ignorance, I believe). If the X100VI, X-E5, and X-M5 are a bit more difficult (but far from impossible) to get, while the X-T5, X-T50, X-H2/X-H2s, and X-S20 are often in stock and more easily purchased, that’s a good balance.
The X100Vi is a truly excellent camera. Nigh on the perfect fixed lens 35mm digital camera. So much so, I cannot possibly think how Fujifilm can improve upon it in any material way to produce an X100Vii. I think this will be my last X100 camera. I’ll never need a bigger sensor for the type of shooting I use it for. I’ll never need dual card slots. I’ll never need more IBIS, or more stops of in-built ND filter. I don’t need a better screen, nor a better EVF/OVF. I won’t need more battery life. I mean, what else could they possibly do to it, without ruining the form factor, that would make it a better version of what it already now is?
I’m a big proponent of camera companies waiting longer before updating models. There’s not a good reason why five years isn’t the average run, with some models going seven or eight or more years before a refresh.