I wasn’t planning to write about this, but a few people reached out to me for my opinion, so I figured I might as well type out an article. Fujirumors shared some tidbits about the upcoming yet-to-be-announced Fujifilm X-T6, namely that it will have a 40mp sensor, 8K video, new battery, and new AI autofocus. Previously, Fujirumors reported that the camera will have “reworked dials” and a new Film Simulation (I discussed the potential new Film Sim here). And that’s all that’s been shared so far.
First, until Fujifilm announces the camera, everything is speculation. For example, we don’t know what “reworked dials” even means (my guess: the lower sub-dials might get updated, but the dials themselves—shutter, ISO, exposure comp—will be nearly identical, but that’s merely a guess). We will all know soon enough, though, whenever Fujifilm does an X Summit for this model, which will likely be sometime in the summer or maybe fall. Second, I have zero inside information. I find out about new gear the same way that you do. I don’t know anything more about this than you.
It sounds like Fujifilm will likely kick off the sixth-generation with the X-T6. I’m not surprised at all that Fujifilm will continue to use a 40mp sensor, and I’ve said as much in the past. In my opinion, 40mp is already well more than enough resolution for almost everyone. Sometimes more megapixels is good, and sometimes it equals more problems. There are tradeoffs to increasing resolution; many times the positive benefits outweigh the negative, but as it gets higher and higher, the pros decrease and the cons increase, and at some point you round the top of the inverted U-curve. Few would argue that 40mp isn’t near the peak for APS-C. What I predicted awhile back is that the sixth-gen will be more about speed and efficiency, and the big change will likely be the processor and not necessarily the sensor.
It’s unknown if the the next generation will continue to use the X-Trans V 40mp sensor, or if it will be a new-and-improved X-Trans VI 40mp sensor. It could go either way, and maybe even both ways depending on the model (for example, X-T6 with new 40mp sensor, X-T60 with old 40mp sensor). I suppose it depends as much on what Sony is willing to manufacture (and how much it costs) as it does on what Fujifilm desires. I don’t have any predictions, I think it’s 50-50 on whether they will continue to use the same sensor or have an upgraded version. I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that it is partially-stacked, and I won’t be disappointed if it’s not.
As far as the new battery, I would bet that it’ll be like the NP-W126S, which was an improvement to the old NP-W126. You can use the new battery in older models, and the old battery in newer models (with a warning that it’s not optimized for it). That’s not negative. I’ll be shocked if it’s a complete redesign. If Fujifilm can improve the battery without losing compatibility, that’s a positive thing. Did you notice the puns?
The X-H2 already has 8K video. It’s my understanding that Fujifilm locked it out of the X-T5 due to heat dispersion issues, so if the processor is more efficient, it would make sense for it to be unlocked on the X-T6. No surprises here. If anything, maybe this is an indication that the X-H3 will have open gate.
I think autofocus is what most people are going to discuss. My opinion is probably different than most. I have talked about it at length over-and-over, and I hate to rehash everything. I’ll try to keep this as brief as possible, but buckle up, because this will be a little lengthy.
To begin with, Fujifilm’s autofocus in fifth-generation models is already pretty good, likely in the top 2% best of all autofocus cameras ever made, and plenty sufficient for most people and circumstances. That perspective is important, and too often ignored. There are a lot of people who seem to lack an appreciation for just how good we have it, how fortunate we are to be photographers right now. With that said, Fujifilm’s AF isn’t as good as the Canikony brands, and for several logical reasons: 1) the other brands had a significant head start (Sony through Minolta and Konica going back to the 1970’s; Canon and Nikon going back to the 1980’s), 2) the Canikony brands have much larger R&D budgets and can better recruit the best talents, 3) the Canikony brands (as reported by PetaPixel) for a long time prioritized AF over image quality improvements and in some cases even to the detriment of IQ, and 4) X-Trans takes a lot more processing power than Bayer, which in and of itself puts Fujifilm at an AF disadvantage. Outside of a paradigm shift, Fujifilm will never have AF that’s as good as the big three, and anyone who expects otherwise will always be disappointed. Expectations need to be kept realistic and in line with reality, but few seem to be grounded when it comes to this topic.
There is some good news, though. First, the Canikony brands (especially Sony and Canon) are near the peak of an inverted U-curve. Their AF is already more than good enough for 99.99% of their customers, so AF improvements only have a practical benefit to a very small group that is only shrinking with each update. That gives Fujifilm an opportunity to catch up as it climbs the inverted U-curve. With each AF improvement that Fujifilm offers, they will get closer to the peak, but it will also have practical benefits for fewer and fewer people each time. For example, I’m personally 100% satisfied with the current AF, so each improvement is meaningless for me, and I imagine that’s true for a lot more people than some naysayers are willing to admit. Second, and I’ve said this before, AI might be the paradigm shift that levels the playing field (or it might not be, who knows?). If this “new AI autofocus” is truly significantly better than the current AI autofocus, it might close much of the gap.
I do believe that X-Trans VI will see improved autofocus, thanks to AI and (especially) more powerful and efficient processing, but the biggest thing that Fujifilm could (and probably should) do is simply make it more intuitive, requiring less fine-tuning from the user. As it is now, you have to optimize the settings for your specific use-cases, and a lot of people are unaware that they need to do that; even if they are aware, they are likely unsure of how to optimize it for their specific use. In other words, Fujifilm’s AF is much better than some believe, it’s just that they don’t know to get the most out of it. If Fujifilm could fix that (without making any other improvements), it would go a long ways towards making people believe that the AF is better. So I hope that improved intuitiveness is a part of Fujifilm’s autofocus plans for the next generation.
That’s all I have. Within a handful of months, if not sooner, I’m sure Fujifilm will announce the first sixth-generation camera. Until then, everything is speculation, and it’s difficult to know what’s true and what isn’t, and what any of it really means. It’s fun to get little tidbits, and peek behind the curtain, but all of it is an incomplete picture until the X Summit, and maybe even beyond that. That is to say, don’t take anything too seriously. Make sure that you consume it with very large grains of salt. It’s very easy to get worked up over something that’s not really even true (something I’ve been guilty of myself). It will get here when it gets here, and I’m sure it will be pretty cool, whenever that happens.
Thanks for slogging through all this. It is just SO boring, yet another XT# when the previous camera could go five more years with just minor version improvements.
Where is the new X-Pro, which would be real announcement/accomplishment. Or an X70 replacement? Something actually wished for and useful.
If I were Fujifilm, I would release an X-Pro first. Think about it: since the X-Pro3, Fujifilm has released the X-T4, X-T5, and soon-to-be X-T6. I agree, an X70 followup should be a priority, too.
The XT-5 is so amazing. I love the camera and I’m just not getting AF deficits that I hear of occasionally. A XT-6? Well, I’m as curious as the next person, although I have to admit my real curiosity is in a new X-Pro. Built to rival Leica specs that would be golden.
The X-T5 could and should have a few more years before a successor. In my opinion, camera makers replace models too quickly. The next X-Pro should have come before the next X-T IMHO. Thanks for the input!
“That’s not negative. I’ll be shocked if it’s a complete redesign. If Fujifilm can improve the battery without losing compatibility, that’s a positive thing. Did you notice the puns?”
You should have said “without losing compatibility with current cameras”.
That’s what I meant. That’s why I talked about the NP-W126S battery: compatible with all cameras that use the NP-W126 batteries.
I was adding another pun for you. Current!!
Oh!! I totally missed that one. Great job!
Hi Ritchie, I’m well aware of your opinion on Fuji AF and I agree with you that the issue often gets blown way out of proportion. Been shooting Fuji for almost 10 years and learned to work around the AF limitations. That said, currently shooting with a Zf as well and, really, then you realize how much better AF can be and what an advantage it is in everyday shooting. Would really hope that Fuji would step up its game there. Even OM Systems – from what I hear, don’t shoot it myself – has great AF and that is a “small” brand.
I was gonna say something similar. ‘Top 2%’ is a wild overstatement. You use anything by Sony or Canon (can’t say for Nikon personally, as I haven’t used one since the D800) and from an autofocus point of view, they make Fuji feel like a toy.
It’s not wild or overstated at all. Since the invention of AF in 1977, there have been over 10,000 AF cameras models. So to be in the “top 2% best of all autofocus cameras ever made” is to be in the Top 200 or so. Are there 200 cameras with better AF than the H-X2s, X-T5, or even the X-M5? I highly doubt it. There might be 150, maybe. Also, I own a Sony a7 IV, and for me and my use-cases, I do not experience any notable difference in AF over my X-T5 or X-E5.
Thanks for answering, Ritchie. First, I’m sure that you are a better photographer than me :); after all, this is your job, whereas I’m just a humble amateur. Been shooting for > 50 years (Praktica, Minolta, Nikon, Canon, Sony, Fuji) and been printing my own photo’s back in the film days, so I’m not a total noob, but that’s probably the best I can say. Second, from what I see, you indeed do not seem to be shooting many moving subjects, so that helps. That said, just over the past months here are a couple of examples where the Fuji AF let me down in real-world situations: 1) Shots of cows in the field. I shot from ground level, but my XT5 managed to focus in most of the shots on a few VERY thin grass helms that were waving in front of the cows. And the cows were practically standing still. Shocking. 2) Shot of a jet fighter, standing still on a landing track. I focussed on the nose cone and got green box confirmation, but somehow the Fuji focussed on the tiny Jeep that was standing WAY back behind the jet. 3) Shots of slowly driving classic car, using Wide/Tracking. The Fuji lost focus immediately after the car passed a small tree and couldn’t re-focus. By comparison: was in Normandy this month at the WWII parade. Got out of the car with my camera in hand and I saw a WWII plane flying over the beach. There was no time to set the controls, so I pointed the Zf to the sky and hoped for the best. ALL shots were tack-sharp (M mode). So again, a better shooter than me might have had better results, but for my – usually not too demanding – use cases, the AF comparison is night and day. After all, I have to work with my own limitations as well! Still love the Fuji colours, though, so not ready to completely switch yet.
For your situations 1 & 2, it sounds like your focus box might be too large. Pal2Tech had a video about this awhile back. A smaller box will ensure that it is focusing on what you want it to, and not something in the foreground or background (I think this tip alone probably clears up a fair amount of the focus issues that people are experiencing). I don’t ever use wide tracking (not even for photos of my kids running around), so I cannot speak to that, but there was a YT video a year or two ago of a wedding photographer who uses it and has a really high hit rate. His video has the specifics of his camera settings, so that might help. I don’t recall the channel, and I didn’t find it after a quick search. But I did see a ton of videos with AF tips; however, I have no idea if they’re actually good or not. Seems like you could probably find the help you need if you want to, but it might require trekking through the weeds (aka random YT videos).
And I think this goes back to what I’ve said a few times now, and that if Fujifilm made their AF more intuitive and require less fine-tuning from the user for their specific needs, it would seem better (without any other improvements). Most of the time, it’s literally user-error, but the user has no idea that it is or how to fix it; however, they could fix it if only they knew that they could and how to do it. The Canikony brands designed their systems to be more intuitive (but less customizable), and that is a part of why people believe it to be so good—it just works out of the box, no fine-tuning required. If Fujifilm worked towards that, it would go a long ways towards “improving” the AF.
I have a Sony a7 IV. I don’t notice any difference in AF performance over my X-T5. Either I’m just so skilled and talented that brand doesn’t matter in the slightest (highly unlikely), my Fujifilm’s AF settings have been fine-tuned to my particular use-cases (probably), and/or my use-cases are not particularly demanding (most likely)—I would say that I photograph similar things to the average person (not many cat photos, though). I’ve been pretty clear that Fujifilm’s AF is not to the same level as the Canikony brands, but what I’m saying is that when viewed from a healthy historical perspective and from a person without especially demanding use-cases, Fujifilm’s AF is pretty good and it’s not a major thing for most. It has room to improve, sure, and I’m certain it will. But outside of a paradigm shift, it will never be as good as the Canikony brands, and it is not realistic to believe that it ever will be. And why should it be? Why does any one brand need to be the best at everything? Is that even possible? Some will be better for this and that, and some won’t. They all have pluses and minuses. If the pluses and minuses of a certain brand are a better mesh for someone than the others, that shouldn’t be surprising.
OM Systems has been making AF much longer than Fujifilm (dating back to 1983) and even partnered with another brand (Panasonic), so some of the logical reasons that I listed still apply. Historically, Sony was first to make an AF model (through Konica), Canon was second, Pentax was third, Nikon was fourth, and Olympus was fifth, all between 1977 and 1983. Fujifilm made some point-and-shoot AF cameras (using licensed Nikon tech, to my understanding), but their first “real” AF system didn’t come until 1998 with the GX680 III AF, and I don’t think it was particular well-regarded. The other thing that I would say is that Olympus was a much larger camera-manufacturing brand than Fujifilm until fairly recently—sometime around 2017 is when Fujifilm overtook them in market share. Today OM might seem “small” compared to Fujifilm, but there was a time not very long ago when Fujifilm would have seemed “small” compared to Olympus.
Not interested in AF.
The current sensor is the best for stacked lens micro on the market. Take 80mp though.
I hate the release. They won’t be changing that.
To have exposure compensation a recipe parameter would be a boon.
Much faster processing of Clarity would make it useable.
I truly hope that much faster Clarity processing is a part of X-Trans VI.