According to Fujirumors, Fujifilm is working on a new camera that will have a sensor size never before used by Fujifilm. I have no idea what that means, but I thought it might be fun to speculate what some of the possibilities are. Who knows if this is an X-series camera… it could be GFX. It could be a digicam or something like the XP80 waterproof camera. It could be Instax, since they have the EVO and PAL models. It could be something else entirely. For the sake of this article, I will assume that it is X-series; however, it very well might not be. I think this is one of those times where it’s best to keep expectations in check and not get your hopes up too high. Still, it can be fun to guess.
My very first thought is that it could be an X30-like successor—perhaps called X50—with a 1″ sensor. The Fujifilm X30 had a tiny 2/3″ 12mp X-Trans II sensor, but was still a good compact zoom, and is fun to use even in 2024. While a successor would need to be significantly different, I do believe that if it has a 1″ 20mp X-Trans V sensor, a 9mm to 37mm (24mm to 100mm full-frame-equivalent) f/2-4 zoom lens, IBIS, EVF, and retro tactile controls (no PASM, please), it will do quite well. There is a renewed interest in these types of cameras right now. Alternatively, a fixed-focal-length wide-angle option could be good, too.
Another idea would be to use the sensor found in the latest GoPro models. It has a tiny 1/1.9″ 27mp sensor with an unusual (almost square) 8:7 aspect ratio. The benefit of the unusual sensor shape is it allows for vertical videos without having to tilt the camera sideways, so obviously it would be a video-centric model, perhaps in the action camera realm. Most likely this would not technically be an X-series model, but it is possible that Fujifilm could use an X-Trans array. I don’t think this is a likely option, unless Fujifilm has thought of some way to stand out in what is already a crowded scene.
I doubt that Fujifilm has any interest in Micro-4/3. I think that MFT is too close to APS-C that they would only compete against themselves; aside from that, MFT is basically a declining market. Still, it is possible that an X100-like or X70-like compact fixed-lens MFT camera is in the works, I just see it as highly unlikely.
An intriguing option that I’ve suggested a couple of times (first in 2019, actually) is APS-H. There aren’t a lot of APS-H cameras anymore, but it used to be more common. Canon made some, as did Sigma. Since APS-H is about 15% larger than APS-C, not all APS-C lenses cover the entire frame. Sigma’s solution was to automatically crop to APS-C for the lenses without full coverage, and I would suggest that Fujifilm take the same approach. While some Fujifilm lenses will fully cover APS-H, some—the majority, actually—won’t; for those that don’t, the camera would automatically crop to APS-C.
The reason why Fujifilm might do this—and the camera that Fujifilm might do this for—is XPan on the future X-Pro4 (or maybe called X-Pro5). Where APS-C lenses struggle to cover APS-H are the corners, so the not-fully-covered lenses would be just fine for the XPan aspect-ratio, since the corners are cropped out. The roughly 50mp APS-H sensor would produce roughly 27mp XPan images. For lenses without full coverage with the 3:2 aspect ratio, you’d still get a 40mp APS-C photo; however, for the lenses with full coverage, you’d get the full 50mp-ish picture.
The only other option I can think of that makes sense is perhaps a full-frame X100-like camera. I don’t believe that Fujifilm has any interest in creating a new lens mount, so I would be completely shocked if Fujifilm made any interchangeable-lens full-frame models. Fujifilm would mostly be competing against themselves, and would undercut both their X and GFX lines; aside from that, the full-frame market is quite crowded and highly competitive. But, a premium fixed-lens full-frame camera might sell very well. Fujifilm would have to do something to differentiate it from the X100VI so that they aren’t directly competing against each other, and I have no doubts that they can.
If I were to bet on what it will be, my guess is none of these, that it’s not an X-series camera. If it is in the X-series, I think the top odds are that it is a 1″ sensor compact camera of some sort. An APS-H X-Pro with the XPan aspect ratio would be super cool, but unlikely in my opinion. With the massive demand for the X100VI, a full-frame version could be a huge sales success. Eventually we will know for sure, but for now we can only speculate, and most of those guesses will turn out to be wrong. Still, it’s fun to dream.
I think it could be a monochrome sensor… ?
It could be (and I would welcome that), but apparently (and specifically) it will be a size of sensor that Fujifilm has never previously used.
OK, as we’re throwing wild speculations around, how about a GFX mount full frame camera as an entry-level or second body option? Other manufacturers do the single-mount dual-sensor-sizes thing so it’s maybe not an entirely mad idea.
I don’t think this would be very competitive because GFX lenses are typically bigger and more expensive than most full frame. It would be very niche… basically, only some GFX users would buy it, and not many others. Fujifilm isn’t afraid of creating niche products, so you never know, but I would think that this is unlikely.
I think FF as an entry-level GFX camera would have a tough row to hoe. The lenses are too dang expensive. Folks are willing to pay $500 for the cheapest lens, a 50mm f/3.5, because it covers a 44x33mm sensor, and becomes something more like a 43mm f/2.8 pancake. The cheapest zoom is a 35-70/4.5-5.6 for $1000. Fuji would have to design a few entirely new lenses with a smaller image circle. I feel that GFX is just a system where “entry level” doesn’t really make sense.
Where FF could make sense in GFX is to get speed. The large sensor just doesn’t readout that quickly, and going for a smaller fast-readout sensor for video and action might make sense. But that’d be something competing against a Z8 or R3: pro level sports cameras.
I like the outside-the-box thinking and repurposing existing products for new use. And I don’t want to discourage Fujifilm from considering niche products. They would have to have a really good angle as to why this camera makes sense. Perhaps it would need to have a stacked sensor? I think if Fujifilm announced a full-frame GFX-mount camera, a lot of the reaction would be negative, so its purpose has to be crystal clear.
Why does nobody takes a 1:1 sensor into consideration? 😉
I think Sony would likely have to make one before Fujifilm puts one in a camera. I guess Sony actually does make one, but it is used only for aerospace applications. But it would be interesting—I think especially for GFX.
According to Fujirumors, a fixed lens GFX is due to be released in 2025. With what sensor remains to be seen. A 100MP might make sense for cropabilty given it is rumored to have a 28mm equivalent f3.2. At the same time, Fuji will need to differentiate, still offer a reason for GFX owners to get one too, and keep the price at the low end of GFX.
All that is to say that Fuji has already recognised the potential for a larger sensor x100,but it won´t be Full Frame. And I think that´s a good thing as Fuji stays on brand, doesn´t fuel the fires of those that think Fuji should commit comercial suicide by offering a FF camera, and could get more people trying medium format.
So, is it two new models next year, or the one we already know about with an unexpected sensor. MY money´s on the latter.
But a 1″ compact fixed zoom camera would also make a lot of sense.
I’m not real sure what will be released in 2025. The X-M5 will likely be announced soon, I would think (in 2024 is my guess). A GFX X100-like camera would be great… not sure how far it is in the development process. If it has retro controls, I’m buying. Other cameras? An X-Pro4 (maybe called X-Pro5) is overdue, and I personally would expect it sometime next year. I think an X-E5 should be a high priority, but who knows? X-T30 III maybe? Fujifilm said that the X-T50 isn’t the X-T30 II’s successor. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is another camera on the horizon, but I’m unsure what it might be. I hope for something compact, but that is just a hope. Will be interesting!
I am using my GFX-50R in two ways, neither of which suits Fujifilm, but both of which tickle my fancy. First is as a 1:1 / 33mmX33mm camera. All of the full-frame manual-everything M-mount lenses I am using for this cover 1:1 easily, and it is just like shooting an old 6×6 Hasselblad; shoot square now and crop horizontal or vertical later. The other is totally the other extreme: a 65:24 panoramic ratio view (44mm x 16.25mm sensor size), and the same full-frame lenses also cover this crop easily. An Xpan / TX pan digital camera with 21 Mp on a GFX sensor does not suck. This is not a new medium format xpan camera, but until there is one…. I am so looking forward to new sensor sizes! Unfortunately, I also believe they will be in the smaller sizes, not the bigger ones. Still, if we could get an X100-something with a nice zoom lens like my Leica D-lux7, I would pounce on that in a second!!!
That’s not crazy at all—it’s great! Love it. Makes me want to get a GFX50R and do something similar.
I do agree: most likely it will be a 1″ sensor, if it is an X-series camera (it might not be… could very well fall within the Instax realm or something else). An X30-like camera with a 1″ sensor would be really cool. Sony and Leica are selling them pretty well, I’m sure Fujifilm would, too.
I really hope is a rangefinder full frame camera, to directly compete with Leica, I really don’t care about any other option, I know, a tad dramatic 😀
It’s definitely a possibility. I have said for awhile that if Fujifilm were to jump into the full-frame world, it would be with a fixed-lens model.
Yeah, leica Q vibe or even Nikon ZF maybe
An x30 successor would probably be really sweet. Nice controls, fuji film sims, and a great small package. With how well the D-Lux 8 has been selling, the used prices on things like a Canon G7X, I think it’d do well for them.
I can also see a space for an Instax with a tad larger sensor. Imagine an Instax Evo Pro, which upgrades the 1/5″ sensor (even if only to 1/2.3″ or 1/1.7″ sensor), dramatically increasing the IQ for the shots you don’t print, or ones you upload to your phone. Something like that, maybe $400-$500 dollars (about twice the price of the Evo). Add a bit more control over exposure, and I can see that being really nice.
For interchangeable lenses, I don’t think it makes sense to create any new lens lines. FF-crop lenses in GFX mount, smaller image circles within XF mount, an entirely new FF lens mount… None of that seems to make sense. Particularly not L-Mount (tempting for consumers, probably a trap for a smaller company like Fuji).
I don’t think Micro43 makes sense. If there was a camera similar to the X-H2s, but that dropped down a sensor size for even faster readout speeds, maybe. Probably doesn’t make sense, there probably isn’t enough of a speed boost, but it’s not totally absurd. The only “new” lens I’d make for it would be a new housing for the XC 15-45 optic to bring it up to XF build quality, maybe add WR, and I’d consider making it a regular rather than power zoom. But that’s something that would probably be nice to get overall.
Going for something like APS-H might make sense in a TX-1/XPan optimized camera. There’s a bit of wasted sensor space that the image circle seldom covers, but not that much. Alik Griffin did a great breakdown on the actual image circles of Fuji lenses a while back ( https://alikgriffin.com/fujifilm-lens-image-circles-bigger-sensor-possible/ ), and most of them cover the edge of an APS-H sensor. Since the corners wouldn’t be important, it might work out well. The only thing that really makes sense for a digital XPan is to use something fairly close to a standard sensor and crop it, but going for a slightly-larger sensor than a mount was designed for in order to squeeze out a little more the wider crop modes (as well as extra height in square or 4:3 aspect ratios) probably makes sense.
While I know I said new lens lineups didn’t make sense, there are a few older lenses (16/1.4, 14/2.8) which wouldn’t have particularly good coverage for XPan crop of an APS-H sensor, or at least don’t with the lens hoods. But these are typically some pretty early Fuji lenses, and having refreshes on them might be a good idea anyhow.
When it comes to auto-cropping… I love how my Pentax K-1 does it. That’s a full-frame DSLR, but Pentax made a lot of APS-C lenses. You have four modes: auto based on lens, always-full-frame, square-within-full-frame, and always-APS-C. I think the APS-C mode has faster shooting burst rates in some cases, but don’t quote that. A some of APS-C lenses cover the full sensor, particularly when stopped down a little. Many will cover the 1:1, and it’s pretty fun to see the frame lines in the optical finder. Having the option to easily switch in and out of auto-crop modes would be great, since I bet a lot of people have different tolerance levels for vignetting and the flaws of corner and edge performance. Even if the image extends to the corner on some lenses, optical flaws tend to be magnified in that area of the image circle.
You make a really good point why a slightly larger sensor than the image circle could make sense. Normally, when you choose the 4:3 aspect ratio on your X-series camera, you get a little less resolution due to the necessary crop; however, for the lenses that don’t fully cover the APS-H frame, you might still get a little increase in resolution choosing 4:3. Other aspect ratios, such as 1:1 or 16:9, would also be an increase in resolution from what it would be if it were APS-C. That’s with lenses without full coverage; obviously, the lenses that do provide full coverage would get the full sensor in 3:2. And it could even be lens-specific: it doesn’t have to be either APS-C or APS-H, because if there is sufficient coverage for halfway in-between the two, there’s no reason why Fujifilm couldn’t program it to crop to that… perhaps you’d get a 45mp image. Of course that complicates calculating crop factors and such, but the camera could do it automatically and put it in the EXIF. And, of course, Fujifilm could give you options on how the camera behaves regarding all of this, similarly to how Pentax does.
A digital Xpan with the panoramic / crop switching (as per the Fuji / Hasselblad) would be great, as would a B&W X-pro, but that’s pushing things too far.
Supposedly (according to Fujirumors) the camera isn’t the digital XPan that Fujifilm is apparently working on. If they used an APS-H sensor in an X-Pro, that would be an obvious excuse to include the XPan ratio. I would love to see that, but I would be surprised if they did (but I’ll keep my fingers crossed nonetheless). I think an “Acros-Edition” B&W-only X-Pro or X100 camera would be awesome. Most likely that would be with a sensor size that Fujifilm is currently using, so whatever it is that they are developing is not likely that. My best guess is that it’s a 1″ sensor camera to compete against the Leica D-Lux 8 and Sony RX100 VII. However, I think there is a strong possibility that it is something within the Instax line or something else that’s not X-series.
I would suggest:
– an x-pro4 or 5 full a full frame sensor. They would compete Leica overpriced M cameras.
– an Xpro 4 or 5 with a ccd sensor 😃
I think it would be interesting to see one of the major camera makers invest in a CCD sensor in the coming years. While there are certainly disadvantages to CCD, and there is a reason why it’s fairly rare nowadays, there are also some advantages, and I think there is a lot of room for that technology to grow. It would be intriguing for someone to try.
As far as a full-frame X-Pro… it would require Fujifilm to develop a whole new lens system, which I don’t see them doing, or they would have to use someone else’s lens mount. The problem with the latter is that there is more profit in lenses than bodies, and they’d basically be giving that up. But, who knows, they could certainly do it.