Let’s Talk About X-Trans VI
In my estimation, the next generation of Fujifilm cameras is right around the corner, likely to be announced early next year. I’ll tell you why I think that, and I’ll take some guesses at what X-Trans VI could look like—what might be different on the next generation of X-series cameras.
Fujifilm’s generational lifespan for the X-series is about three years. Some are a little longer, some are a little shorter. X-Trans I had the shortest lifespan of only about one year, or maybe two years, depending on how you classify the X-M1, which had an X-Trans I sensor paired with X-Trans II processor. Otherwise, though, three or three-and-a-half years is the average. Even though the X-S20 and X-M5 (and likely the X-T30 III when it is announced soon) have an X-Trans IV sensor, I consider them fifth generation cameras because they have the X-Processor 5 and everything that goes with that—they have some notable similarities to the other fifth generation models (the X-M1, on the other hand, had notable dissimilarities with X-Trans II models). The X-H2/X-H2s kicked off X-Trans V a little over three years ago, so we’re due for the next generation.
Fujifilm has been using the X-E series as a marker for the end of an X-Trans generation—not as the last camera, but as the second-to-last. The X-E1 was the second-to-last X-Trans I camera, with the X-M1 as the last; the X-E2s was released simultaneously with the X70, the last two X-Trans II cameras; the X-E3 was the second-to-last X-Trans III model, with only the X-H1 following; the X-E4 was the second-to-last X-Trans IV release (not including the X-S20 and X-M5), with the X-T30 II as the last. The Fujifilm X-E5 will most likely continue this pattern, and be the second-to-last fifth-generation model, with only the upcoming X-T30 III following. I think it’s safe to say, based on past patterns, that 2025 will be the final year for the fifth-generation, and the sixth-generation will kick off in 2026.
Fujifilm often announces cameras in January/February, which are shipped in February/March. There’s a reasonable chance that will continue; however, not every year sees a camera released at the very beginning. A spring announcement with a late-spring, early-summer release is also common. My best guess is that the first sixth generation camera will be announced on or before the end of May, but probably sooner. Keep in mind this is merely a guess and nothing more.
What will X-Trans VI look like? I think it will be more about speed and efficiency than resolution. X-Trans takes a lot more computing power than Bayer, which not only puts a strain on the processor, but can also be more prone to heat dispersion issues. By emphasizing speed and efficiency improvements, Fujifilm can minimize some of the drawbacks to X-Trans. Besides, 40mp is already more than enough resolution for the format. I’m not sure if Fujifilm plans to continue using the same sensors and just upgrade the processor, or if we’ll see new sensors, too—or maybe a mix. Or it could be that we’ll see “new” sensors that have identical specs to the old ones, with small design improvements.
Sony makes Fujifilm’s camera sensors, as they do for many camera companies. If Fujifilm wants a partially-stacked 40mp APS-C sensor, Sony has to be willing to manufacture and sell it to Fujifilm. I think such a sensor would be well received in an X-H3 and X-T6, and would help to address speed and efficiency. Would Sony make that sensor, and how much more will it cost than the non-stacked version? That’s a good question. I think there is potential for some cameras to have a partially-stacked 40mp sensor (X-H3 and X-T6), and some to have a non-stacked 40mp sensor (for example, X-T60 and X-E6).
What about the X-H3s? Will it continue with the 26mp stacked sensor? If the X-H3 has a partially-stacked sensor, that might narrow the gap sufficiently for Fujifilm to discontinue the X-H2s line altogether. I think it’s possible that Fujifilm offers some small under-the-hood improvements along with the X-Processor 6, and simply call it the X-H2s II (basically, a very minor update). I also think it’s possible that Fujifilm replaces the X-H2s with an X-series version of the upcoming GFX Eterna cinema camera. I’m not sure how well the X-H2 and X-H2s have sold, and if Fujifilm feels that both models are justified in the new generation. If there’s one camera potentially on the chopping block, it’s likely either the X-H2 or the X-H2s; however, my guess is that they both continue, unless an “X Eterna” model is introduced as a sort-of replacement for the X-H2s.
I also wonder if Fujifilm will continue to use the X-Trans IV sensor into the sixth generation. As far as I know, Sony doesn’t offer any APS-C sensor in-between the 26mp that X-Trans IV is built on and the 40mp that X-Trans V is built on. Maybe Sony has been developing (say) a 32mp sensor behind the scenes; after all, Fujifilm was the first and (so far) only customer of the 40mp sensor, so it could happen with another one. If so, Fujifilm would move beyond the X-Trans IV sensor in its lower-resolution sixth generation cameras, like the X-S30, X-M6, and X-T30 IV (perhaps the X-T30 III and X-T50 “merge” into one line, called the X-T60, with a 32mp X-Trans VI sensor). If not, I suspect that the X-Trans IV sensor will live on for a few more years, or maybe they make a minor change to it and call it 26mp X-Trans VI. It might even make sense for Fujifilm to offer three different resolution options.
It’s possible, albeit highly unlikely, that Fujifilm will stop using Sony sensors. Samsung makes pretty good camera sensors, and Fujifilm even helps with some of their technology. They used to manufacture APS-C sensors for their long-defunct NX line, including a 28mp one that was pretty well regarded at the time. I could see Fujifilm using a new sensor maker for X-Trans VI, but I would be highly surprised if that actually happens. Sony is tried-and-true, reliable, and comfortable—if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
My guess is that the next X-Pro, which might be called X-Pro4, X-Pro5, or maybe even X-Pro6, will be announced early next year, and will be the first sixth generation camera. I have no idea what will be different about it. I really hope that it has the XPan aspect ratio—it would be an absolute shame if it doesn’t. The X-Pro1 kicked off X-Trans I, the X-Pro2 launched X-Trans III (there was a significant gap in-between the two), and the X-Pro3 was the first camera with Classic Negative (and some other JPEG goodies). It’s overdue, so it makes sense to me that it will be the first X-Trans VI model.
After that, the X-H3 and X-H3s (or X Eterna) seem like logical options, followed by the X-T6, which might come in late 2026 or early 2027. I could see the X-S30 announced in May of 2027, and with it the new 32mp sensor (if such a sensor happens). Of course, this is all highly speculative. I have no inside information, these are merely guesses that should be taken with a huge amount of salt.
I do think that X-Trans VI should introduce a new Film Simulation or two. While Fujifilm is the in-camera JPEG processing leader, other companies are trying to close the gap, so Fujifilm should not be complacent. Some ideas: PRO Neg. H, that resembles Fujicolor PRO 400H film, and turns pastel with overexposure; Velvia XPRO, which mimics Fujichrome Velvia 50 that has been cross-processed; Fortia, which is simply the Pop Color Advanced Filter graduated to Film Simulation, resembling Fujichrome Fortia film; Natura, a facsimile of Fujicolor Natura 1600; Neopan, a new B&W option similar to Acros but with more contrast. I have many other ideas, but those should get Fujifilm started if they’re not sure what to do.
It shouldn’t stop with Film Simulations. Some other JPEG ideas are: Highlight and Shadow Color Toning, allowing for a split tone aesthetic (available for both color and B&W photos; something like the Monochromatic Color option, but specifically for Highlight and/or Shadow); Faded Shadow Effect (Strong, Weak, Off); Vignetting (Strong, Weak, Off); Halation Effect (Strong, Weak, Off); Light Leak Effect (On, Random, Off); Mid Tone adjustment within the Tone Curve (-2 to +4); Medium Grain size and strength; Extra Strong and Extra Large Grain Effect. Additionally, I’d like to see the Retro and Expired Film Filters from the X half make their way into Advanced Filters, and also the ability to set Grain and perhaps some other customizations within Advanced Filters. Last but certainly not least, all of the 40mp cameras should have the XPan aspect ratio. If Fujifilm introduced just half of those ideas, it would be highly celebrated.
I’d also like to see Fujifilm address the IQ options—the Recipe parameters—linked to other settings, such as AF, sound, etc., within C1-C7. I explained this problem last year, and provided Fujifilm with a potential solution that came from Fred Miranda—if you’re from Fujifilm, you may want to read that article. Also, John Peltier covered this topic in his Fujifilm X-E5 video. There’s more than one way that this could be addressed, and the X-E5 does sort-of somewhat fix it, but I think it’s important to find a solution sooner than later.
We’re nearing the end of the fifth generation of the X-series. In all likelihood, the sixth generation will come in 2026, which is right around the corner. I have no idea what changes that will bring, but it will certainly bring some. While I’m excited for the new cameras, I also want to express my opinion that camera successors come too quickly. If parts can be secured, camera makers should keep manufacturing models for many years. The refresh rate should be five-to-seven years; three years should be an exception and not a rule. Regular firmware updates can keep “old” products fresh. This also means you have to keep building the current models, and situations where a certain one is discontinued and the successor doesn’t come for a couple of years should be avoided. Discontinue the old model when the new one is six months out, and when the new one is released, it should be a substantial update, and not a minor refresh. This seems like a more realistic approach, and is more similar to how the camera industry worked for many, many decades—I hope we can get back to that. In the meantime, I’ll continue to enjoy the cameras I have, which are quite excellent photo-making machines. It’s fun to consider what the future might be, but it’s important to not lose sight of here and now, which is what actually matters.
