I wasn’t planning to write about this, but a few people reached out to me for my opinion, so I figured I might as well type out an article. Fujirumors shared some tidbits about the upcoming yet-to-be-announced Fujifilm X-T6, namely that it will have a 40mp sensor, 8K video, new battery, and new AI autofocus. Previously, Fujirumors reported that the camera will have “reworked dials” and a new Film Simulation (I discussed the potential new Film Sim here). And that’s all that’s been shared so far.

First, until Fujifilm announces the camera, everything is speculation. For example, we don’t know what “reworked dials” even means (my guess: the lower sub-dials might get updated, but the dials themselves—shutter, ISO, exposure comp—will be nearly identical, but that’s merely a guess). We will all know soon enough, though, whenever Fujifilm does an X Summit for this model, which will likely be sometime in the summer or maybe fall. Second, I have zero inside information. I find out about new gear the same way that you do. I don’t know anything more about this than you.

It sounds like Fujifilm will likely kick off the sixth-generation with the X-T6. I’m not surprised at all that Fujifilm will continue to use a 40mp sensor, and I’ve said as much in the past. In my opinion, 40mp is already well more than enough resolution for almost everyone. Sometimes more megapixels is good, and sometimes it equals more problems. There are tradeoffs to increasing resolution; many times the positive benefits outweigh the negative, but as it gets higher and higher, the pros decrease and the cons increase, and at some point you round the top of the inverted U-curve. Few would argue that 40mp isn’t near the peak for APS-C. What I predicted awhile back is that the sixth-gen will be more about speed and efficiency, and the big change will likely be the processor and not necessarily the sensor.

It’s unknown if the the next generation will continue to use the X-Trans V 40mp sensor, or if it will be a new-and-improved X-Trans VI 40mp sensor. It could go either way, and maybe even both ways depending on the model (for example, X-T6 with new 40mp sensor, X-T60 with old 40mp sensor). I suppose it depends as much on what Sony is willing to manufacture (and how much it costs) as it does on what Fujifilm desires. I don’t have any predictions, I think it’s 50-50 on whether they will continue to use the same sensor or have an upgraded version. I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that it is partially-stacked, and I won’t be disappointed if it’s not.

As far as the new battery, I would bet that it’ll be like the NP-W126S, which was an improvement to the old NP-W126. You can use the new battery in older models, and the old battery in newer models (with a warning that it’s not optimized for it). That’s not negative. I’ll be shocked if it’s a complete redesign. If Fujifilm can improve the battery without losing compatibility, that’s a positive thing. Did you notice the puns?

The X-H2 already has 8K video. It’s my understanding that Fujifilm locked it out of the X-T5 due to heat dispersion issues, so if the processor is more efficient, it would make sense for it to be unlocked on the X-T6. No surprises here. If anything, maybe this is an indication that the X-H3 will have open gate.

I think autofocus is what most people are going to discuss. My opinion is probably different than most. I have talked about it at length over-and-over, and I hate to rehash everything. I’ll try to keep this as brief as possible, but buckle up, because this will be a little lengthy.

To begin with, Fujifilm’s autofocus in fifth-generation models is already pretty good, likely in the top 2% best of all autofocus cameras ever made, and plenty sufficient for most people and circumstances. That perspective is important, and too often ignored. There are a lot of people who seem to lack an appreciation for just how good we have it, how fortunate we are to be photographers right now. With that said, Fujifilm’s AF isn’t as good as the Canikony brands, and for several logical reasons: 1) the other brands had a significant head start (Sony through Minolta and Konica going back to the 1970’s; Canon and Nikon going back to the 1980’s), 2) the Canikony brands have much larger R&D budgets and can better recruit the best talents, 3) the Canikony brands (as reported by PetaPixel) for a long time prioritized AF over image quality improvements and in some cases even to the detriment of IQ, and 4) X-Trans takes a lot more processing power than Bayer, which in and of itself puts Fujifilm at an AF disadvantage. Outside of a paradigm shift, Fujifilm will never have AF that’s as good as the big three, and anyone who expects otherwise will always be disappointed. Expectations need to be kept realistic and in line with reality, but few seem to be grounded when it comes to this topic.

There is some good news, though. First, the Canikony brands (especially Sony and Canon) are near the peak of an inverted U-curve. Their AF is already more than good enough for 99.99% of their customers, so AF improvements only have a practical benefit to a very small group that is only shrinking with each update. That gives Fujifilm an opportunity to catch up as it climbs the inverted U-curve. With each AF improvement that Fujifilm offers, they will get closer to the peak, but it will also have practical benefits for fewer and fewer people each time. For example, I’m personally 100% satisfied with the current AF, so each improvement is meaningless for me, and I imagine that’s true for a lot more people than some naysayers are willing to admit. Second, and I’ve said this before, AI might be the paradigm shift that levels the playing field (or it might not be, who knows?). If this “new AI autofocus” is truly significantly better than the current AI autofocus, it might close much of the gap.

I do believe that X-Trans VI will see improved autofocus, thanks to AI and (especially) more powerful and efficient processing, but the biggest thing that Fujifilm could (and probably should) do is simply make it more intuitive, requiring less fine-tuning from the user. As it is now, you have to optimize the settings for your specific use-cases, and a lot of people are unaware that they need to do that; even if they are aware, they are likely unsure of how to optimize it for their specific use. In other words, Fujifilm’s AF is much better than some believe, it’s just that they don’t know to get the most out of it. If Fujifilm could fix that (without making any other improvements), it would go a long ways towards making people believe that the AF is better. So I hope that improved intuitiveness is a part of Fujifilm’s autofocus plans for the next generation.

That’s all I have. Within a handful of months, if not sooner, I’m sure Fujifilm will announce the first sixth-generation camera. Until then, everything is speculation, and it’s difficult to know what’s true and what isn’t, and what any of it really means. It’s fun to get little tidbits, and peek behind the curtain, but all of it is an incomplete picture until the X Summit, and maybe even beyond that. That is to say, don’t take anything too seriously. Make sure that you consume it with very large grains of salt. It’s very easy to get worked up over something that’s not really even true (something I’ve been guilty of myself). It will get here when it gets here, and I’m sure it will be pretty cool, whenever that happens.