Fujirumors posted an article today entitled BREAKING: This Totally Unexpected Fujifilm Camera is Coming in 2025 – And I Know You Won’t Believe Me. I believe it and even expected it, because I’ve been saying it for over a year. If you regularly read Fuji X Weekly, you probably believe it, too, and might even have expected it yourself. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve predicted it over the last 14 months—probably a good handful. For some (including myself), this is not a surprise in the least.
In the third paragraph of my Fujifilm X-T50 review (published on May 16, 2024), I stated, “The X-T50 is not the successor to the X-T30 II, but a whole new (yet highly similar) line. Fujifilm plans to sell the X-T30 II alongside the X-T50, similarly to what they did with the X-T3 and X-T4 a few years back. This also means that there is a potential future successor to the X-T30 II, perhaps called the X-T30 III or X-T40; I don’t know that for sure, but I think it is a fair assumption. The main thing for you to know is that the X-T50 is not a replacement for any previous model, but a whole new camera.”
Just two months ago, in my article entitled My Hopes for the Fujifilm X-E5 (published on May 21st), I concluded with this: “My prediction, which is merely a guess and nothing more, is that an X-T30 III (an X-T30 II but with X-Processor 5) will be announced in the fall….” It looks like that guess was pretty much correct.
For those still scratching their heads, Fujirumors just leaked that the X-T30 II’s successor (which isn’t the X-T50) is coming sometime in 2025. And this is taking the Fujifilm community by surprise. Many people apparently assumed that the X-T50 was the X-T30 II’s successor, even though Fujifilm said from the get-go that it wasn’t. Fuji X Weekly might have been the only website that predicted the X-T30 III (or maybe they’ll call it X-T40, but I doubt it). I don’t have any inside information, I only took Fujifilm at their word, and followed the sequence of past releases to predict this outcome. It just made sense to me.
So what will the Fujifilm X-T30 III look like? I think it will be exactly the same as the X-T30 and X-T30 II (which was mostly just a firmware update to the X-T30), except with the X-Processor 5. In other words, it will have Nostalgic Neg. and Reala Ace, but otherwise will be pretty much identical to the X-T30 II. Some are predicting an X-T50 but with the 26mp sensor instead of 40mp, but I don’t think so, personally. There will be a price increase, because of inflation (and, in America, the tariffs). The X-T30 II was $900 in 2021, which is $1,070 today, so don’t be surprised if the X-T30 III is about $1,050-$1,100 USD for the body-only outside of America, and $1,300-$1,400 in the US due to tariffs. That’s just the new normal, I think.
The question that some will certainly ask is why does this camera need to exist. The X-M5 is the new entry-level model. The X-S20 is the hybrid PASM model underneath the X-H2/X-H2s. The X-E5 has been upgraded to a mid-tier camera. The X-T50 is also a mid-tier model. Where does the X-T30 III fit into that? I believe that it will be the lowest-tier non-PASM camera, underneath the X-T50 and X-T5. This line has been historically successful for Fujifilm. It offers a more affordable option for those who want an EVF. But… I think it will also be an indication of what’s to come very soon with the other models (aside from the X-E5 and X half): price increases (at least in America, maybe not worldwide). Other brands have already announced higher prices, and Fujifilm will be doing so soon, too, in my opinion.
Of course, I’ve been wrong about plenty of things before. For every one thing that I’ve predicted correct, I’ve predicted two or three completely incorrect. That’s the trouble with guessing the future (ask Robert Zemeckis). I cannot say with any level of certainty what the X-T30 II’s successor will be like, so my predictions should be taken with a large grain of salt. But the fact is that the X-T30 II’s successor is coming soon, and I’m not surprised by it.
WHY??????? I think what we all REALLY want is an X-Pro 4/5/6 or what ever they want to call it!!! Just give us a new X-Pro camera with all the best features of the X-T5. I’ll gladly unload my X-T5 and one of my 3 X-Pro 2’s for the X-Pro latest edition!
Well, the next X-Pro is coming, probably in the spring. Give it eight or nine months. In my estimation, it will be the first of the next generation. Second, the X-Pro series (by sales numbers) is far more niche than the X-T00 line, so that’s why. Far more people will buy an X-T30 III than will buy the X-Pro4 (or whatever they call it). Yes, the X-Pro fans are making a lot of noise, but the market for it is pretty narrow. In other words: comments on the web don’t necessarily equate to camera sales. I bet that the X-T30 III will quietly sell twice as many copies as the next X-Pro, despite that the next X-Pro will make much splashier headlines. That, of course, turns the question on it’s head: why wouldn’t Fujifilm release the X-T30 III first? It only makes sense that they would.
Indeed. And Fujifilm already said many times that for the X-Pro3 successor it will need to be special and will be different. We are waiting for the next gen but still real sensor game changer, like the organic one is too come…
Here simply like Nikon, reuse of components well known and integrated them with latest updates, so to keep the line to current standards vs other gen V cameras.
It will be interesting to see what they do with the next X-Pro. Anything is on the table, but I suspect that a working prototype is already in the hands of someone right now.
More than welcome refresh, but I hope deeply that with the current steep price increase it will be still be the expected low-tier / low budget camera we need absolutely in X Mount.
Do not get me wrong, the X-E5 dramatically raise the bar on quality and construction over the previous iteration. So super nice to have another premium camera, but this going away to a more budget camera compared to X-Pro / X-Ty / X100 lines and it was use to be.
Now it is a quite crowded market share and price wise clear differenciation is not there any more. With or without rebats the X-T5 / X-T50 / X-E5 / X100V are all too near to each other (and kit offering doesn’t help much either).
So it is quite difficult for a newcomer to Fujifilm to make an immediate choice based simply on price and standing out specs.
You end up on choosing ‘ow more the packaging / camera shape, then the specific differences in specs.
I’ve got the case a month ago on advising a Fujifilm camera as a brand camera / complete gear / brand replacement for someone on a very tight budget.
It was a very difficult choice, I didn’t have much price alternative even going secondhand… Just a few years before I would have no issues at all.
So I really hope without even having anymore X-Ty00 or X-A lines to have with this refresh, at last the true Fujifilm budget camera with good 2025 specs / standards 🤞
It will help greatly the brand, and it will definitely sell!
I have wondered, with the apparent success of the X-M5, if Fujifilm has considered an X-T300, as a low-budget SLR-shaped PASM camera? There might be a market for it, after a five year hiatus. Or maybe there’s only room for one budget-friendly entry-level model, and that’s the X-M5. I think part of the failure of the X-A7 and X-T200 is that the market could only support one of them at that time and not both, and the two together sank the ship. But a handful of years later, perhaps the market has shifted and there’s room for two?
Good point. But even now by looking what they did and move the X-5 to a premium status / slot. The X-M5 is a bit video centric and no EVF. Well the M series was designed like that compared to the E like as the most budget line of the X series. Until the A line appeared and finally replaced it at the time.
The futur refreshed X-T30III (?), definitely not X-T500 which is not sharing the the same body shape and more so sensor (the X-Ty00 were Bayer like the A line, so Fujifilm wil definitely not pick this number for a X-Trans sensor), will be more photographic centric I assume. Still video capable like the X-M5, I assume too, but with an EVF.
So all depends on the price it will sold…
But as you raise the question of having room for both, with the coming of the X-E5 and this one, is there a room for X-S30 ???
Also seems that with X-Half, the retro style (retnew) is for en vogue for the time being.
On that part with this rumour announcement I really wonder.
What I’m sure though, is that compact camera are really a trend for now. Secondhand market prices are rocketing. XF10 is found only at minimum at the double of it price…
So I told Kunio and Shin at the Fujikina Brussels event in May, there is definitely room for a compact camera. We are all hoping for a X80 or X30. I would wish for a XQ3 (very compact 1″ X-Trans like 1 & 2 were) or even XF20 as there is also still room also for a true Richo GR competitor.
I would be first in line for an X80, and an X30 successor or XQ3 type camera would do really well right now.
Will it be called x-t500 refering to x-t200 (even though it wasnt non-PASM) ? It would make more sense than x-t30 III today and will clarify line and number in current line up no ?
I give the new camera a 75% chance of being called X-T30 III. That’s by far the most logical. It will be the nearly identical followup to the X-T30 II, so dramatically changing the name would cause more confusion than not. And by doing this, the X-T30 will essentially be immortalized, and will (surprisingly) be one of Fujifilm’s most legendary cameras. I would say there’s a 15% chance of X-T40 (Fujifilm has occasionally skipped the number 4 because it is unlucky in Japan; for example, they skipped X-A4). If the intention is for this line to continue, and the X-T50 isn’t a part of this line, that doesn’t give it a place to go, naming-wise. I think there’s a 5% chance of X-T30s or X-T30 IIs. There’s a 5% chance they could change it to X-T500… I see your point, but it seems unlikely. I doubt that they will change it to anything else. So most likely it will be X-T30 III, much less likely but still an option is X-T40, and much less likely than that is something else, like X-T500.
While I’m not personally interested in it, I think this seems like a good idea. The bar keeps going up on Fuji cameras–X-E5 and X-T50 are much more expensive than the older generation, and there kind of isn’t an entry-level shutter dial camera anymore, just PASM like X-M5 and X-S20.
I mean, Sony still sells their a6400 and a6100 from 2019.
As to numbering, at least Fuji numbering sorta-kinda makes sense. The NEX-5 was followed by the NEX-7, which was followed by the NEX-6. After changing the branding from NEX to alpha, the a6000 was followed by a6300, a6500, a6400, a6100&a6600 simultaneously, then a6700 in that order. There’s still never been an a6200.
Honestly, Fujifilm should be in less of a hurry to update their lineup, just so long as they’re still making the units available. Honestly, the X-E5 was unnecessary had the X-E4 still be in production; it was only necessary because the X-E4 had been discontinued with pent-up demand.
It’s my understanding that the X-T30 II hasn’t been officially discontinued, but they seem to have stopped production and run out of inventory, which is pretty much the same thing. My guess is that the update will be 1) to improve Lean production by consolidating some software/components with what is being used on fifth-generation models (mostly, X-Processor 5) and 2) provide the opportunity for a price increase to account for inflation. I guess a bonus reason is that new models get more attention (which leads to more purchases) than older models, so they will sell more X-T30 III units over the next 12 months than they would X-T30 II had they just continued making the X-T30 II instead of releasing an update.
Had Fujifilm simply given the (original) X-T30 a solid firmware update four or five years ago, they could still be selling it today, and it would still be a competitive model in its class (which is a very small class, honesty: retro-styled, SLR-shaped, ILC, mirrorless, APS-C, lower-middle-tier… I think the Nikon Zfc is the only other camera, and I give the overall advantage to the X-T30 for a handful of reasons that I’ve already talked about).
My first Fujifilm camera was an Xt30 II and I loved that little beast. I upgraded to an Xt4 just for the ibis and I kinda regret that because it’s quite big and heavy for my liking. If they can put an ibis and keep everything else the same on the xt30 at a reasonable price, I would “downgrade” in no time.
My search for a no-nonsense budget camera is still going on for now.
The X-T5 is a little smaller and lighter than the X-T4 (but definitely still larger/heavier than the X-T30 II). If they added IBIS, the X-T30 III would be a little larger/heavier than the current model (at least by a small amount—see the X-T50). I guess what I’m saying is, take a look at both the X-T5 and the X-T50, you might find what you are looking for; however, maybe not at the price you’d like it to be.
IBIS on a x-t30 body is just a dream of mine. Market is full of great different cameras but there is always something missing for obsessed ones like me.
X-t5 may be good choice, at least for a while. Since it’s cheaper than x-t50 in the used market in my country, I can’t justify the xt50 price in my head. It’s still a nice camera too. Thanks for the advices.
X-s20 is the closest camera to my dream but I hate the flip out screen on my x-t4 and will never buy a camera with one again. So it’s a no go for me unfortunately.
I had a chance to put my hands on a x-e5 review sample for a couple minutes and very impressed with the build quality. I’d be happier if it came cheaper with and older sensor but you can’t have it all. Waiting and saving money started to make sense lately.
I know what you mean. I have an X-E5 preordered… I don’t “need” it and it’s a bit of a stretch to afford it (I’m saving up), but I ordered it anyway because I want it, I think it’s an excellent camera.